As the 2020 presidential election approaches, President Donald Trump is faced with his biggest challenge yet: impeachment. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California, has officially opened an impeachment inquiry against President Trump after a whistleblower came forward with evidence of Trump’s attempt to conspire with a foreign government in order to get information on his 2020 election rival, Joe Biden.
Our country is heading toward uncharted waters in seeing a possible impeachment so close to an election, and in those waters, many unanswered questions are looming. Perhaps the biggest: how will an impeachment affect Trump’s chances of achieving a second term in office?
This is a question that nobody will truly know the answer to until after the impeachment and the election.
It’s undeniable that Trump has one of the most loyal voter bases ever seen in American politics, and despite every accusation to fall on him, his support base has been unwavering. However, looking back at the 2016 election, Trump did not win due to his base. His victory came from tactical campaigning and being able to win key swing states. An impeachment, even if he is not removed from office, could be detrimental to his ability to win those states again in 2020. An impeachment could very well swing public opinion that even Trump is not immune to.
U.S. politics today are more polarized than ever. Government officials and elections alike are more about party identification over policy. After watching the last Democratic debate, I can recall any candidate talking about his or her main goal being to get Trump out of office than any specific policy or action. Politics in the US have become a matter of “Us vs. Them” and very well could mean the impeachment is a political move based on strategy rather than a true belief that the president violated the law.
The impeachment could potentially be as equally disastrous for the Democrats just as much as it could be for the Republicans. Or, as Trump likes to call it, a “witch hunt.” If the impeachment goes through and Trump is found not to be guilty of abusing presidential powers, it could have the opposite effect that the Democrats are looking for, and they could paint the entire case as a witch hunt for Trump. Whoever the Democratic nominee may be, a failed impeachment could very well lose his or her votes and put the entire party in a bad light.
As the 2020 election approaches, it seems as though more questions are being posed than answers. The current possibility of impeachment has sent the United States into unknown territory that will truly put our democracy to the test. It is very unclear what to expect in the coming months, and the country seems to be becoming increasingly polarized. The other end of the upcoming election will be nothing short of a learning experience no matter the outcome and just might provide the clarity in U.S. politics which we need.
By Luke Gobel, Contributing Writer
gobellz17@bonaventure.edu
